Recovery Flattening in July as Protracted Recovery Looms

Key Findings

• U.S. job openings fell to 4.8 million, 20 percent below pre-crisis levels. Job openings improved in fits and starts throughout July, resulting in no gains compared to late June. Such unsteady progress raises the prospect of an increasingly protracted recovery.
• Job openings in tech (+16.5 percent month-over-month), health care (+11.9 percent) and consumer services (+9.8 percent) grew,  driving up demand for e-commerce  and health care as COVID-19 outbreaks escalated around the country.
• Regional examples of virus-driven demand: In the hard-hit South, job openings in food services declined 3.7 percent month-over-month while health care job openings surged 18.7 percent, a sign that the pandemic is reversing economic gains in some industries while also driving demand for frontline responders.
• What to expect in the July Jobs Report? This Friday's report comes at a critical juncture for the American economy as Congressional negotiations over extending financial relief continue. Early evidence suggests the report will show a significant slowdown in the pace of recovery. It could, although unlikely, even show net payroll declines or a rise in unemployment. Even a slowdown would be a powerful reminder that the solid pace of recovery seen in May and June cannot be taken for granted.

The economic recovery is progressing in fits and starts as the country grapples with resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks. Glassdoor's latest Job Market Report shows that, as of July 27, 4.8 million job openings are available, unchanged from the prior week and from the prior peak reached in late  June. Job openings appeared to be on the path to recovery in early June, but resurgent outbreaks of COVID-19 in July tapped the brakes on the economy, halting the rapid pace of recovery and stalling economic gains. This sideways trajectory is especially concerning when job openings are still down 20 percent relative to pre-crisis levels, and an increasingly protracted recovery risks making the negative effects of the crisis longer-lasting. Ultimately, the lesson over the last two months is that getting the public health crisis under control is key to economic normalcy.  While a solid pace of recovery is possible, the economy remains extremely fragile and any progress can be easily and quickly reversed. Based on an analysis of employer job posting behavior on Glassdoor, 36 percent of employers have reduced job openings from June 22 to July 27. This is only slightly more than the share of employers increasing job openings (34 percent) but worse than the recovery period in early June. Conditions are still better than the first three months of the crisis, an indicator that the recovery is progressing but doing so cautiously.

Change in Job Openings by Industry

• While job openings were essentially unchanged week-over-week (-0.2 percent), they did increase 4.5 percent month-over-month. This is partially due to the unsteady recovery over the last two months. Job openings in the same period last month were weak, causing month-over-month growth in the latest data to look unusually strong.
• Tech job openings increased 16.5 percent month-over-month. Many big tech companies reported earnings well above expectations last week, a signal that even during the crisis, tech companies are expanding their businesses. And as localities reverse reopening, tech companies in e-commerce will need to hire to keep up with demand. Consumer services (+9.8 percent month-over-month), including many consumer delivery companies, also saw a similar bump in job openings
• Health care job openings rose 11.9 percent month-over-month. At the beginning of the crisis, job openings for health care collapsed as the cancellation of elective procedures rippled through the industry. Now, health care providers are hiring again to respond to the recent outbreaks in COVID-19.

Change in Job Openings by Industry Group

Industry Group	Week-over-Week Change	Month-over-Month % Change
U.S. Total	-0.2%	4.5%
Business Services	-1.6%	1.6%
Construction & Real Estate Services	0.7%	2.9%
Consumer Services	1.8%	9.8%
Finance & Insurance	-0.3%	3.9%
Food Services	-0.6%	-2.3%
Health Care	1.6%	11.9%
Manufacturing & Production	0.9%	4.0%
Public Services	-0.4%	-2.3%
Retail	1.7%	6.3%
Tech	0.6%	16.5%
Trade & Transportation	0.7%	-0.3%

Note: Data as of July 27, 2020

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020

The chart below shows how some industries have trended over the course of the crisis. Note that office-based industries like business services, finance & insurance and tech continue to see low job growth. Despite rising in the last few weeks, they are still significantly depressed relative to other industries. By contrast, reopening initially boosted consumer services, food services and retail, but those gains have reversed since mid-June. Lastly, health care job openings have surged recently as the need for frontline workers to combat outbreaks continues to grow. For more detailed data on job openings trends by industry and industry group, see our appendix below.

A Tale of Two Industries

The evolution of the public health crisis in recent weeks is most telling in how it has affected job openings in two industries: food services and health care. As states reopened, industries like food services were among the first to bounce back, but with resurgent outbreaks, many states have begun reimposing restrictions on non-essential business. Simultaneously, the increase in case counts has pushed health care providers to hire aggressively to combat the pandemic. As case counts have escalated in recent weeks in the South, health care job openings have surged 18.7 percent month-over-month while food services job openings have dropped 3.7 percent, the largest swings of any Census region. Similar but more muted trends are occurring in the Midwest and West, which have also had outbreaks. In the Northeast, by contrast, job openings are more stable, growing mildly in both health care (+1.8 percent) and food services (+2.4 percent). Food services and health care stand in contrast, two sides of the same coin, demonstrating that the pandemic is the dominating force controlling America's economic trajectory.

Food Services & Health Care Job Openings Show Economic Impact of Second Wave

		Month-over-Month % Change
Census Region	Census Division	Food Services	Health Care
U.S. Total	Total	-2.3%	12.0%
Northeast	New England	1.5%	5.6%
	Middle Atlantic	2.8%	-0.6%
	Subtotal	2.4%	1.8%
Midwest	East North Central	-1.5%	6.9%
	West North Central	-1.9%	16.1%
	Subtotal	-1.6%	10.0%
South	South Atlantic	-2.8%	17.8%
	East South Central	-6.7%	18.3%
	West South Central	-3.5%	20.8%
	Subtotal	-3.7%	18.7%
West	Mountain	-5.4%	13.8%
	Pacific	-1.3%	14.2%
	Subtotal	-3.0%	12.0%

Note: Data as of July 27, 2020. Census regions and divisions as defined here.

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020

For more detailed data on job openings trends by state and for select metropolitan areas, see our appendix below.

What to Expect in the July Jobs Report

This Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the July jobs report, the first jobs report to include the impact of the most recent coronavirus flare ups. While the May and June jobs reports showed a solid pace of recovery, many high frequency economic indicators have significantly slowed since late June in a sign that the recovery is stalling. While an outright negative report is less likely, it is alarmingly plausible. The July jobs report comes at a time when Congress continues to negotiate over extending financial relief to tens of millions of Americans, including the now-expired supplementary unemployment benefits. This report will be closely watched by policymakers, and a significant slowdown in July would tamp down optimism about a V-shaped recovery and reinforce the fragility of the economy. The last three months are a reminder that any economic recovery is dependent on getting the public health crisis under control. If reopening prematurely leads to growing outbreaks, economic gains will be fleeting at best, leaving the economy stuck in the doldrums. At worst, rising cases risk imperiling the already frail economy and sending us back into a double-dip recession.

Methodology

The job openings data for the selected dates is generated based on the methodology used in Glassdoor’s monthly Job Market Report, which provides a real-time view of hiring trends and wage growth across the U.S. based on millions of online jobs and salaries on Glassdoor. The data represents a snapshot of the number of job openings available on Glassdoor on the highlighted dates. Week-over-week, month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons are based on the Mondays from the comparable period. Except where otherwise noted, no additional smoothing, averaging or seasonal adjustment for job openings data is performed. Because no smoothing or averaging takes place, the data may not be directly comparable to Glassdoor's monthly Job Market Report.

Appendix

Each table may not sum up to total. For example, industry data may be missing for some employers.

Table A: Change in Job Openings by Industry

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 27, 2020	Jul 20, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jul 29, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,834,910	4,845,179	4,626,290	6,107,089	-0.2%	4.5%	-20.8%
Accounting & Legal	31,467	31,193	30,562	49,898	0.9%	3.0%	-36.9%
Aerospace & Defense	55,197	55,517	57,663	91,725	-0.6%	-4.3%	-39.8%
Architecture & Civil Engineering	25,849	26,016	26,420	44,883	-0.6%	-2.2%	-42.4%
Arts & Entertainment	25,969	25,656	25,890	53,657	1.2%	0.3%	-51.6%
Automotive	82,685	81,014	76,107	107,751	2.1%	8.6%	-23.3%
Banking & Financial Services	92,010	91,268	87,395	137,874	0.8%	5.3%	-33.3%
Beauty & Fitness	59,162	59,664	60,498	83,030	-0.8%	-2.2%	-28.7%
Biotech & Pharmaceuticals	63,638	63,398	60,932	74,271	0.4%	4.4%	-14.3%
Business Services	7,645	7,602	7,469	12,881	0.6%	2.4%	-40.6%
Computer Software & Hardware	101,121	101,410	99,641	156,782	-0.3%	1.5%	-35.5%
Construction	55,961	55,770	56,647	72,372	0.3%	-1.2%	-22.7%
Consulting	55,087	56,642	56,747	78,884	-2.7%	-2.9%	-30.2%
Consumer Electronics	8,095	7,972	7,447	13,951	1.5%	8.7%	-42.0%
Consumer Services	24,412	22,563	14,067	15,158	8.2%	73.5%	61.1%
Education & Schools	163,095	161,999	161,295	259,384	0.7%	1.1%	-37.1%
Energy & Utilities	33,255	32,677	31,887	53,411	1.8%	4.3%	-37.7%
Facilities	44,995	43,938	39,992	51,458	2.4%	12.5%	-12.6%
Farming & Agriculture	8,477	8,351	8,264	9,996	1.5%	2.6%	-15.2%
Government	118,557	117,712	126,740	130,189	0.7%	-6.5%	-8.9%
Health Care & Hospitals	745,174	732,956	661,641	876,084	1.7%	12.6%	-14.9%
Information Technology	104,701	111,066	104,675	184,486	-5.7%	0.0%	-43.2%
Insurance	60,631	61,826	59,574	84,297	-1.9%	1.8%	-28.1%
Internet & Tech	124,200	115,479	79,067	61,527	7.6%	57.1%	101.9%
Manufacturing	167,365	165,359	156,315	231,819	1.2%	7.1%	-27.8%
Marketing & Advertising	56,289	57,642	48,431	65,012	-2.3%	16.2%	-13.4%
Media & Publishing	12,417	12,015	11,345	27,602	3.3%	9.4%	-55.0%
Nonprofit	56,654	59,832	58,388	73,760	-5.3%	-3.0%	-23.2%
Private Security	22,432	22,580	27,023	26,733	-0.7%	-17.0%	-16.1%
Real Estate	47,442	47,228	46,256	51,450	0.5%	2.6%	-7.8%
Restaurants & Bars	457,102	459,962	467,845	639,248	-0.6%	-2.3%	-28.5%
Retail	385,963	379,427	361,728	508,622	1.7%	6.7%	-24.1%
Supermarkets	92,781	91,424	88,832	97,272	1.5%	4.4%	-4.6%
Telecommunications	24,564	24,226	23,205	40,177	1.4%	5.9%	-38.9%
Transportation & Logistics	220,388	219,002	223,259	298,808	0.6%	-1.3%	-26.2%
Travel & Tourism	36,105	35,466	30,551	91,750	1.8%	18.2%	-60.6%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020

Table B: Change in Job Openings by Industry Group

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 27, 2020	Jul 20, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jul 29, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,834,910	4,845,179	4,626,290	6,107,089	-0.2%	4.5%	-20.8%
Business Services	172,920	175,659	170,232	233,408	-1.6%	1.6%	-25.9%
Construction & Real Estate Services	174,247	172,952	169,315	220,163	0.7%	2.9%	-20.9%
Consumer Services	265,314	260,604	241,663	419,125	1.8%	9.8%	-36.7%
Finance & Insurance	152,641	153,094	146,969	222,171	-0.3%	3.9%	-31.3%
Food Services	457,102	459,962	467,845	639,248	-0.6%	-2.3%	-28.5%
Health Care	808,812	796,354	722,573	950,355	1.6%	11.9%	-14.9%
Production	264,294	261,904	254,129	386,951	0.9%	4.0%	-31.7%
Public Services	338,306	339,543	346,423	463,333	-0.4%	-2.3%	-27.0%
Retail	486,839	478,823	458,007	619,845	1.7%	6.3%	-21.5%
Tech	330,022	327,955	283,383	402,795	0.6%	16.5%	-18.1%
Trade & Transportation	242,601	240,886	243,381	331,628	0.7%	-0.3%	-26.8%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020

Table C: Change in Job Openings by State

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 27, 2020	Jul 20, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jul 29, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,834,910	4,845,179	4,626,290	6,107,089	-0.2%	4.5%	-20.8%
Remote	13,627	13,076	11,565	10,005	4.2%	17.8%	36.2%
AK	10,851	10,621	10,309	12,435	2.2%	5.3%	-12.7%
AL	67,862	67,161	65,311	78,267	1.0%	3.9%	-13.3%
AR	38,872	38,886	35,681	42,549	0.0%	8.9%	-8.6%
AZ	107,534	108,416	101,423	124,748	-0.8%	6.0%	-13.8%
CA	504,825	507,711	475,662	696,319	-0.6%	6.1%	-27.5%
CO	95,502	95,316	93,439	135,418	0.2%	2.2%	-29.5%
CT	51,942	51,968	51,274	71,373	-0.1%	1.3%	-27.2%
DC	32,801	33,025	33,576	46,463	-0.7%	-2.3%	-29.4%
DE	17,828	17,814	17,139	20,218	0.1%	4.0%	-11.8%
FL	263,543	263,092	248,274	328,670	0.2%	6.2%	-19.8%
GA	157,986	156,875	148,086	200,701	0.7%	6.7%	-21.3%
HI	12,782	12,663	12,939	19,925	0.9%	-1.2%	-35.8%
IA	51,419	50,875	47,820	58,878	1.1%	7.5%	-12.7%
ID	20,418	19,928	19,233	22,693	2.5%	6.2%	-10.0%
IL	195,291	192,338	185,544	259,268	1.5%	5.3%	-24.7%
IN	106,466	104,866	104,243	120,284	1.5%	2.1%	-11.5%
KS	45,605	45,975	43,999	54,191	-0.8%	3.7%	-15.8%
KY	68,234	68,209	65,268	73,848	0.0%	4.5%	-7.6%
LA	55,495	55,796	52,857	64,894	-0.5%	5.0%	-14.5%
MA	139,542	143,332	139,775	192,314	-2.6%	-0.2%	-27.4%
MD	117,265	117,633	112,243	133,797	-0.3%	4.5%	-12.4%
ME	23,787	23,777	22,470	27,329	0.0%	5.9%	-13.0%
MI	142,327	144,261	129,285	160,416	-1.3%	10.1%	-11.3%
MN	85,990	87,755	86,089	111,895	-2.0%	-0.1%	-23.2%
MO	92,005	94,040	88,766	113,637	-2.2%	3.6%	-19.0%
MS	34,823	34,204	33,821	37,824	1.8%	3.0%	-7.9%
MT	14,129	14,054	14,512	16,054	0.5%	-2.6%	-12.0%
NC	161,503	161,281	154,402	209,450	0.1%	4.6%	-22.9%
ND	13,793	13,877	13,382	16,389	-0.6%	3.1%	-15.8%
NE	32,622	33,479	30,367	35,380	-2.6%	7.4%	-7.8%
NH	27,110	31,763	25,858	32,235	-14.6%	4.8%	-15.9%
NJ	140,287	135,434	129,329	150,037	3.6%	8.5%	-6.5%
NM	34,957	34,962	34,131	41,282	0.0%	2.4%	-15.3%
NV	38,639	38,041	36,012	51,006	1.6%	7.3%	-24.2%
NY	220,783	224,525	220,940	308,648	-1.7%	-0.1%	-28.5%
OH	175,056	176,203	169,242	219,917	-0.7%	3.4%	-20.4%
OK	49,228	48,281	47,091	60,250	2.0%	4.5%	-18.3%
OR	55,770	55,215	53,025	73,820	1.0%	5.2%	-24.5%
PA	210,710	212,353	202,391	241,957	-0.8%	4.1%	-12.9%
RI	15,416	15,510	15,108	20,354	-0.6%	2.0%	-24.3%
SC	80,244	79,590	75,901	94,647	0.8%	5.7%	-15.2%
SD	15,278	15,064	14,824	16,762	1.4%	3.1%	-8.9%
TN	105,645	104,388	98,915	128,971	1.2%	6.8%	-18.1%
TX	369,105	371,292	357,716	483,435	-0.6%	3.2%	-23.6%
UT	43,270	43,212	42,139	55,532	0.1%	2.7%	-22.1%
VA	165,309	165,398	159,019	204,573	-0.1%	4.0%	-19.2%
VT	11,538	11,315	10,418	13,780	2.0%	10.8%	-16.3%
WA	128,163	129,965	116,435	157,734	-1.4%	10.1%	-18.7%
WI	87,638	86,165	84,733	109,401	1.7%	3.4%	-19.9%
WV	29,958	30,163	29,012	31,994	-0.7%	3.3%	-6.4%
WY	9,672	9,623	10,591	12,417	0.5%	-8.7%	-22.1%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020

Table D: Change in Job Openings for Select Metropolitan Areas

	Job Openings				Percent Change
	Jul 27, 2020	Jul 20, 2020	Jun 29, 2020	Jul 29, 2019
Category	Current Week	Last Week	Last Month	Last Year	Week-over-Week	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Total	4,834,910	4,845,179	4,626,290	6,107,089	-0.2%	4.5%	-20.8%
Atlanta, GA	93,401	93,114	88,549	125,884	0.3%	5.5%	-25.8%
Boston, MA	109,993	115,311	110,164	156,867	-4.6%	-0.2%	-29.9%
Chicago, IL	152,206	149,323	144,631	205,451	1.9%	5.2%	-25.9%
Houston, TX	74,269	75,180	71,647	101,086	-1.2%	3.7%	-26.5%
Los Angeles, CA	159,071	159,191	153,254	226,241	-0.1%	3.8%	-29.7%
New York City, NY	239,479	236,529	233,164	311,221	1.2%	2.7%	-23.1%
Philadelphia, PA	96,030	99,095	93,392	113,651	-3.1%	2.8%	-15.5%
San Francisco, CA	105,188	106,556	96,124	152,383	-1.3%	9.4%	-31.0%
Seattle, WA	92,817	95,261	83,562	117,427	-2.6%	11.1%	-21.0%
Washington, DC	145,683	146,849	144,121	191,471	-0.8%	1.1%	-23.9%

Source: Glassdoor Job Market Report, July 2020