After Trump’s 100 Days: What to Watch for in Friday’s Jobs Report

On Friday, Americans will get the final jobs report of President Trump’s first 100 days in office. What do our economists expect to see?

• 168,000 new jobs added to nonfarm payrolls

• Unemployment rate up slightly to 4.6 percent

• Average hourly wages up 2.6 percent from one year ago

• Labor force participation rate down slightly to 62.9 percent

On the occasion of President Trump’s first 100 days in office -- marked officially on April 29 -- our economists rated the president’s record so far on jobs and the economy. How has America’s 45^th president fared in terms of job creation, wage growth and consumer confidence? Below is Glassdoor’s “economic scorecard” on Trump’s first 100 days in office. For our analysis, we looked at nine economic indicators in two different ways -- a total of 18 measures -- and how they’ve fared so far under Trump. Overall, we found that 78 percent, or 14 measures, of the economy have improved during Trump’s first 100 days on the job, while 22 percent, or four measures, are worse or the same as a year ago. To read a more in-depth analysis, see our blog post.

The Highlights

The best economic news we’ve received during Trump’s first 100 days is that the strong and growing economy inherited from the previous administration has mostly continued unabated. The economy remains near full employment, wage growth is slowly picking up, and the economy has continued adding jobs at a moderate pace. However, one indicator that has clearly improved during Trump’s first 100 days is manufacturing. Saving and creating manufacturing jobs has been a special focus of the Trump administration, and there’s at least some evidence those efforts are showing up in the data. Here’s a chart of manufacturing job openings on Glassdoor over the past year and a half. Both in terms of the number of open jobs and the trend compared to the past three months in hiring is clearly up during Trump’s first 100 days. How much of this is really due to Trump policies during the first 100 days? It’s probably too early to credit the president for these gains. On the other hand, job postings are one measure of the economy that reflects optimism or pessimism by manufacturers. Hiring is forward-looking, and this boost in manufacturing job postings may have been influenced by Trump’s pro-manufacturing policy statements during his first 100 days. U.S. Manufacturing Job Openings on Glassdoor Note: Average monthly counts of unique open U.S. jobs in the manufacturing sector on Glassdoor. Shaded areas represent the “Trump” period, and the “Year Ago” comparison period for the same three months a year ago. The orange lines represent the average during the shaded time periods, while the green lines represent the average during the three-month time periods preceding the shaded periods. Source: Glassdoor Economic Research (glassdoor.com/research).

No Boom in Job Creation

On the other hand, many indicators of jobs and the economy we looked at are basically unchanged or slightly worse during Trump’s first 100 days. One example is monthly job creation, or “nonfarm payrolls,” as shown in the figure below. During Trump’s first 100 days, the economy cranked out an average of 178,000 new jobs per month. That’s actually down slightly from the same period a year ago, when the economy created an average 196,000 jobs per month. This slowing pace of job growth is normal for an economy running near full employment, and probably has little to do with Trump policies. Also, the statistical confidence interval for nonfarm payroll growth is +/- 120,000 jobs, so this decline isn’t statistically significant. Nevertheless, the data show Trump’s first 100 days slightly underperformed job creation compared to a year ago in terms of levels. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Source: BLS and Glassdoor Economic Research. Shaded areas represent the “Trump” period and the “Year Ago” comparison period for the same three months a year ago. The orange lines represent the average during the shaded time periods, while the green lines represent the average during the three-month time periods preceding the shaded periods.

What Comes Next?

With Trump’s first 100 days behind us, what’s next for jobs and the economy? One issue that is top of mind for many economists is how long today’s economic expansion might continue. As of April, the current expansion is now 94 months old, or nearly eight years. Many young Millennials today have never experienced a recession during their entire working careers. That’s well beyond the norm -- since WWII the average length of time between recessions has been about 58 months or around five years. This U.S. expansion is longer than average, but it’s still far from the longest on record. The 1990s expansion during the Clinton years lasted a whopping 120 months. The lesson? Economic expansions don’t die of old age. Nevertheless, many economists are on the lookout for signs of the next economic pullback around the corner. Research shows most U.S. recessions historically have started in one of three ways: an oil price shock, an asset bubble collapsing, or a rapid tightening of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. For those on the lookout for the next economic slow down, those three factors are a smart place to focus attention.

April Glassdoor Local Pay Reports

The monthly Glassdoor Local Pay Reports show the annual median base pay in the United States grew 2.7 percent year over year in April 2017 to $51,350. That’s down slightly from the 2.8 percent revised pay growth recorded last month, marking a three-month long downward trend: U.S. pay growth peaked in December at 3.1 percent. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports provide a unique view into the country’s wage picture with salary estimates for 60 job titles across multiple industries and year-over-year (YOY) pay growth trends in the United States. New this month, the reports now include details on 10 major metros: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C. To read more about the Local Pay Reports and see trends for each market, visit https://www.glassdoor.com/research/local-pay-reports/. To speak with Dr. Andrew Chamberlain about this month’s jobs report or labor market trends, contact pr [at] glassdoor [dot] com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, subscribe to email alerts here and follow @adchamberlain.