October Jobs Report Preview: Report Sets Economic Stage for Next Four Years

The latest jobs numbers will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday. What should we expect and what will the report mean for job seekers, employers and investors? Here’s a quick take from Glassdoor Senior Economist Daniel Zhao:

With all votes now cast in the 2020 U.S. election, Friday's jobs report will set the economic stage for the next four years. The next president faces the monumental challenge of tackling an ongoing pandemic and economic crisis. This Friday's jobs report will provide further clarity on the height of the economic mountain still to be scaled, showing accumulating permanent layoffs even as the rehiring of furloughed workers continues.

Looking back to 2019, however, is a reminder as well of the economic opportunity presented to the next president. Before the pandemic, the labor market was in a healthy position, continuing the longest economic expansion in American history. Economic progress was steady with the unemployment rate reaching its lowest level in fifty years. Additionally, evidence suggested that gains were spreading broadly through the economy, with accelerating wage gains for low-income workers and a shrinking Black-white racial unemployment rate gap. 

The onset of the pandemic in March 2020 brought this expansion to a screeching halt with the sharpest drop in economic activity in American history. In some ways, the recovery will require a different approach from past crises, one focused on managing health risks and helping Americans bridge the economic disruption. Because the current economic crisis is pandemic-driven, resolving the health crisis could produce a faster-than-expected recovery with furloughed workers returning to the labor force and businesses quickly resuming hiring.

In other ways, however, the crisis is similar to past experiences—it is all too common for recoveries to be K-shaped, leaving disadvantaged groups behind economically. The next president will be faced with the dual challenge of leading the country out of the COVID-19 crisis while constructing a sustainable expansion that grows the economic pie.

What to Expect in Friday's Jobs Report

The labor market has staged a better-than-expected recovery since the initial months of the pandemic, beating expectations almost every month since May. However, the labor market still faces a steep mountain to climb, especially as rising permanent layoffs risk tripping up the recovery.

To speak with Daniel Zhao about this Friday's jobs report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.