Research
UI Claims Fall to New Intra-Crisis Low
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Sep 17, 2020
Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims fell last week, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, as Labor Day muted UI claims. Last week's UI claims reached a new intra-crisis low, dropping just below 800,000 weekly claims for the first time since March, pointing to a recovery making slow progress.
Initial UI claims fell by 75,974, dropping to 790,021 from 865,995, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest figures from the Department of Labor for the week ending September 12. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 860,000 initial UI claims were filed, a more moderate drop from 893,000 in the prior week.
While ordinarily, the non-seasonally adjusted data is more useful during an acute crisis, the new additive seasonal adjustment methodology and the Labor Day effect mean that seasonally adjusted data, showing a more muted decrease, is more appropriate to focus on for week-over-week changes this week.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims partially reversed their dramatic spike over the last few weeks, dropping back to 658,737, as PUA claims dropped in California. However, the level of PUA claims is still elevated and should be viewed with skepticism. The PUA program has been plagued by fraud and reporting issues, so the still elevated levels in California and continuing increase in Arizona, which explain much of the recent increase, likely do not reflect a significant worsening of conditions on the ground.
Continuing claims for UI fell more than expected to 12.3 million for the week ending September 5, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Continuing claims have fallen steadily from mid-July through mid-August, and continue to do so as we approach the reference week for the September jobs report. Continuing claims have been more optimistic than other labor market indicators during this crisis, but the reduction is a sign that hiring is pulling workers off UI rolls.
The drop in UI and PUA initial claims last week point to both a continuing recovery and improving data quality. The asterisk for this week's report is that the Labor Day holiday is pulling claims down and that PUA data quality issues persist. Despite these caveats, overall, UI claims continue to make sluggish progress towards recovery.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims partially reversed their dramatic spike over the last few weeks, dropping back to 658,737, as PUA claims dropped in California. However, the level of PUA claims is still elevated and should be viewed with skepticism. The PUA program has been plagued by fraud and reporting issues, so the still elevated levels in California and continuing increase in Arizona, which explain much of the recent increase, likely do not reflect a significant worsening of conditions on the ground.
Continuing claims for UI fell more than expected to 12.3 million for the week ending September 5, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Continuing claims have fallen steadily from mid-July through mid-August, and continue to do so as we approach the reference week for the September jobs report. Continuing claims have been more optimistic than other labor market indicators during this crisis, but the reduction is a sign that hiring is pulling workers off UI rolls.
The drop in UI and PUA initial claims last week point to both a continuing recovery and improving data quality. The asterisk for this week's report is that the Labor Day holiday is pulling claims down and that PUA data quality issues persist. Despite these caveats, overall, UI claims continue to make sluggish progress towards recovery.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
Tags:Unemployment
