While I believe in Satya's vision for the company, the new reality of Microsoft at least for the next few years will be a constant risk of RIFs. You have to be really adept at knowing which group to be in. It's like a giant game of whack a mole, you can get hit at any time for no reason regardless of how good your performance is.
I personally know someone who won Platinum Club (highest sales honor) and less than 2 months later was RIFed. There is ZERO consideration of the individual or talent when it comes to a RIF. While they do allow you to interview back in, it's sort of an empty welcome as you are booted out of the company and treated like a new hire, at least from an access and interview perspective. Also you are only given 2 months...not nearly enough time given the glacial speed with which MSFT recruiting teams move. I've been on both sides of this now. I've interviewed and hired in dozens of great people at MSFT but the process is painful in my opinion.